Donald Trump and Africa – where to from here?

KRL International’s President & CEO, Riva Levinson, shares her views on what the Trump administration’s latest budget could mean for Africa and continued advocacy

In mid-March, President Donald Trump released his Fiscal Year 2018 “America First” budget, offering up his national and international priorities, including increased spending for defense, homeland security and veterans’ affairs, and reductions almost everywhere else, with double digit cuts to the State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

The FY 2018 budget also calls for the elimination of dozens of federal programs, including a few that impact Africa directly, such as the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), the US Trade and Development Authority (USTDA), the US Africa Development Foundation (USADF), and US-government funded think tanks the Woodrow Wilson Center and the United States Institute for Peace (USIP).

While the budget blueprint is likely to be dead-on-arrival once it reaches Congress, Trump has the put Republican majority, a fiscally conservative party, in a vice. By insisting that he will not permit increases in the budget deficit, Republicans will be forced to make hard choices on the domestic and international programs they have long-supported, programs impacting Africa are no exception.

Beyond the budget, US-Africa policy will be impacted by President Trump’s immigration policies, including his twice-deferred Executive Order, placing a temporary stop on immigration from seven Muslim majority countries, including Somalia and Sudan; as well as the crack-down on illegal immigration at home.

While we have yet to see a presidential directive ordering greater scrutiny for work and study visas for non-risk African countries, anecdotal evidence is emerging to suggest that US consular officers, knowing Washington’s predilection, are self-policing, increasing lead times needed to secure visas.

Case and point. Each year, the University of Southern California (USC) invites delegations from Africa to meet with business leaders and government officials at the African Global Economic and Development Summit, but this year, no Africans traveled to participate, as all were denied visas.

So what does all of this mean for US-Africa business relations, and for the historical programs that have bound the relationship, including the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), Power Africa, the Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI), the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), PEPFAR, Feed the Future, and others?

What can those of us who care about Africa, particularly the business community, do to support American interests and our African friends and colleagues?

Some realities. Some recommendations.

First, Africa is unlikely to be prioritized by the Trump Administration anytime soon, outside of national security concerns stemming from violent extremism, and certainly not in the next two years. The presidential phone calls that have been thus far made to African leaders, including Nigeria’s Buhari, President Beji Caid Essebsi of Tunisia, South Africa’s Zuma and Kenyatta of Kenya, were organized so that the White House could check the Africa box, but not because of any urgency reflected by advisors or the President himself.

It is anticipated that Africa policy will be relegated to Trump’s senior advisors for African affairs, including four key positions: 1) The Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, 2) the Assistant Administrator for Africa at USAID, 3) the Assistant to the President for African Affairs at the National Security Council (NSC) and 4) the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). Only the positions at State and USAID require confirmation by the Senate. At the time of this writing, not one appointment had' been made.

Africa’s advocates should engage now to make sure that these positions are filled by knowledgeable professionals, and encourage full vetting of the nominees and their policies when then two nominations reach the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a hearing and vote. With the G-7 meeting taking place in Italy on 26 May, with a focus on Africa and migration, the Africa appointments will need to be made in the coming weeks.

Second, Africa’s advocates need to begin speaking the language of the Trump Administration, highlighting how US engagements in Africa are relevant to the ‘Make America Great Again,’ agenda. Like other business constituencies, American CEOs with interests on the Continent should be petitioning for a seat at the Trump table, armed with job creation figures, including for small and mid-sized US businesses, data supporting US exports and highlighting growing market opportunities in Africa, and the threat that US competitors, like China, willing fill the void if US businesses are not able to engage.

Recently, I participated in several brainstorming sessions with colleagues who work in Africa to help develop policy papers to table with the new Administration. We reviewed bilateral programs, and discussed potential upgrades and/or modifications. While this was a valuable exercise, truth is, if we don’t collectively make the strategic case for Africa, we will be left fighting for crumbs at the tactical level.

Third, the reality of the situation is that Africa’s business advocates will need to prioritize the programs that are most important to US-Africa engagement, after which, advocating on a results-based basis, and within a national security context, will be critical. Not all of the Obama-era programs will survive – the proposed budget cuts are too severe. The front-line in this fight will be the Republicans in Congress.

Lastly, African governments need to be engaged by the business community, and told that creating a climate for successful foreign direct investment, and dealing with systemic corruption, must be prioritized for the sake of future constructive engagements with the Trump Administration.

We should recall a recent New York Times article in February, revealing the questions submitted by the Trump White House Transition Team to the US State Department on Africa. The tone was startling, with one of the questions suggesting Africa was not worth our time because so much is lost through corruption.

All of the above said, Donald Trump could surprise Africa, like George W. Bush did in 2003, three years into his presidency, discovering a Continent where targeted US investment could have life-changing consequences. Further, Trump might realize that Africa is bursting at the seams with entrepreneurial ideas, energy, and opportunities for US companies - and that the label of “disrupter”, used disparagingly in the United States, is a celebrated term in Africa. We can all hope.

But he may not. In which case, our advocacy efforts will be all the more important.

K. Riva Levinson is President and CEO of KRL International LLC a D.C.-based consultancy that works in the world’s emerging markets, and author of "Choosing the Hero: My Improbable Journey and the Rise of Africa's First Woman President".